Ad giant GroupM says TV ad spending is 'soft,' but streaming services will 'account for multiple billions of dollars' once they hit scale. U.S. ad growth, excluding political spending, to slow in 2020 amid economic trends despite Summer Olympics.
U.S. ad gains will slow excluding election spending as the economy normalizes and TV ad spending is"soft," but streaming services will"account for multiple billions of dollars" once they hit scale, GroupM predicts.
U.S. political advertising is expected to hit $9.8 billion or more in 2020, compared with a projected $2.1 billion in 2019 and $8.4 billion in 2018, boosting growth to 8.1 percent next year due to the elections, GroupM said, but highlighted that its core forecast excludes political spending “because the scale of this activity meaningfully distorts year-over-year growth.”
The 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo will “provide some marginal benefits, although we note that it can be difficult to identify the degree to which Olympic activity captures spending that would already have occurred or if it causes incremental spending to flow into the advertising market,” according to the firm.
Advertising revenue to pure-play internet-based companies will grow by 20 percent this year to $127 billion, representing a 50 percentage share of the overall U.S. ad market, and 13 percent in 2020, the firm projects. Discussing political advertising in 2020, GroupM said trends indicate that "fundraising through the end of 2020 will exceed $10 billion and could approach $12 billion for federal races, of which somewhere between 60–70 percent would likely be disbursed during 2020. Local, nonfederal races are tracked separately... data from FollowTheMoney.org indicates that in 2018, there was a total of $8.7 billion in fundraising during that calendar year alone.
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