Analysts are making the case for crude oil at $200 a barrel or more, while Russia’s deputy prime minister has warned that full-fledged sanctions could send the price to $300 a barrel or more.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a global commodity market shock. And there may still be significant upside for crude oil, already trading near 14-year highs well north of $100 a barrel, as the U.S. and its allies reluctantly begin to target Russian energy supplies, according to one of the world’s top commodity traders.
If Russian crude was fully targeted by Western sanctions, oil could go “hugely higher from even here,” said King, who serves as chairman of RCMA. And while lifting sanctions on Iran could eventually help fill some of the hole, as would further releases from strategic reserves maintained by member countries of the International Energy Agency, a painful round of demand adjustment would still be needed to get the market back in balance, he said.
King said its difficult to estimate how high crude could ultimately go but the uncertainty of war means it isn’t a one-way bet, which makes trading crude and other commodities extremely difficult right now, he said.
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